Lugar: Sala de Reuniones del Departamento de Economía. Edificio Los Madroños, 2ª planta (ECON-2026)

Ponente: Rebeca Jiménez Rodríguez (Universidad de Salamanca)

Título: Impact of terms-of-trade shocks at disaggregate level (trabajo conjunto con Amalia Morales Zumaquero)

Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the impact of country-specific commodity terms-of-trade shocks on economic growth for developing and emerging countries, not only at aggregate level but also at disaggregate level (specifically, considering four different categories: agricultural raw materials, food and beverages, energy and metals). Results show: (i) at the country group level, evidence supporting the so-called “terms-of-trade disconnect puzzle”; (ii) at the specific country level, mixed evidence (i.e. “blessing effect”, “curse effect” or “negligible effect”); (iii) at the commodity category level, output is mainly affected by shocks to the terms-of-trade for metals, followed to a lesser extent by those for energy; and (iv) relevant impact (if any) occurs mainly in the short run.